Scenario-based Assessment of Decarbonized Energy System Towards 2050: Analyses of Low Emission Technology in Thailand

Rathana Lorm, Bundit Limmeechokchai

Abstract


Thailand’s energy sector has been the dominant contributor to national CO2 emissions, accounting for approximately 89% of total emissions for decades due to its heavy reliance on conventional fuels across both demand and supply sectors. In response, the country has pledged to become a carbon-neutral economy by 2050, with the energy sector playing a central role in this transition. This study examines sectoral emissions mitigation, energy demand and supply dynamics, and electricity production costs from 2018 to 2050 using the integrated LEAP-NEMO framework. The findings indicate that Thailand can achieve its carbon neutrality target in the early 2050s through the widespread adoption of energy-efficient technologies, reducing 46% of final energy consumption. Additionally, the results highlight a significant shift towards electricity and biomass on the demand side, alongside a substantial increase in renewable energy generation, which must reach at least 67% of total electricity production. To further support decarbonization, natural gas-based power generation will require integration with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, while green hydrogen will play a crucial role as a clean fuel alternative across the transport, industrial, and electricity sectors.

Keywords


Carbon neutrality; Decarbonization; Energy system; LEAP-NEMO; Thailand

Full Text:

PDF

References


UNFCCC., 2015. Paris agreement. Available: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/parisagreement_publication.pdf

IPCC., 2018. Summary for Policymakers. In:Global Warming of 1.5°C: IPCC Special Report on Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial Levels in Context of Strengthening Response to Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty. Cambridge University Press, 2022, pp.1-24.

ONEP., 2022. Thailand’s long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategy (revised version). Available: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Thailand LT-LEDS %28Revised Version%29_08Nov2022.pdf

DCCE., 2025. Thailand’s first biennial transparency report. Available: https://unfccc.int/documents/645098

DEDE. 2022. Final energy consumption by economic sectors. Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy [Online serial] Retrieved June 15, 2024, from the World Wide Web: https://www.dede.go.th/articles?id=174&menu_id=67

EPPO. 2023. Electricity statistic 2023. Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy [Online serial], Retrieved June 15, 2024, from the World Wide Web: https://www.eppo.go.th/index.php/en/en-energystatistics/electricity-statistic

UNFCCC., 2022. Thailand’s 2nd updated nationally determined contribution. Available: https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/NDC/2022-11/Thailand 2nd Updated NDC.pdf

IPCC., 2018. Annex I: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R. (ed.)]. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2018. doi: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.008.

Zhang S. and Chen W., 2022. China’s energy transition pathway in a carbon neutral vision. Engineering 14(2022): 64–76.

Vats G. and Mathur R., 2022. A net-zero emissions energy system in India by 2050: An exploration. Journal of Clean Production 352: 131417.

Glynn J., Gargiulo M., Chiodi A., Deane P., Rogan F., and Gallachóir B. Ó., 2019. Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement. Climate Policy 19(1): 30–42.

Oshiro K., Masui T., and Kainuma M., 2018. Transformation of Japan’s energy system to attain net-zero emission by 2050. Carbon Management 9(5): 493–501.

Pradhan B.B., Shrestha R.M., and Limmeechokchai B., 2022. Attainability of net zero carbon emission targets in Nepal under different effort-sharing approaches. Global Environment Research 26.

Williams J.H., Jones R.A., Haley B., Kwok G., Hargreaves J., Farbes J., and Torn M. S., 2021. Carbon‐neutral pathways for the United States. AGU Advances 2(1).

Promjiraprawat K., Winyuchakrit P., Limmeechokchai B., Masui T., Hanaoka T., and Matsuoka Y., 2014. CO2 mitigation potential and marginal abatement costs in Thai residential and building sectors. Energy and Buildings 80: 631–639.

Chaichaloempreecha A., Winyuchakrit P., and Limmeechokchai B., 2017. Assessment of renewable energy and energy efficiency plans in Thailand’s industrial sector. Energy Procedia 138: 841–846.

Chunark P., Thepkhun P., Promjiraprawat K., Winyuchakrit P., and Limmeechokchai B., 2015. Low carbon transportation in Thailand: CO2 mitigation strategy in 2050. Springerplus 4(1).

Limmeechokchai B., Winyuchakrit P., Pita P., and Tatsuya H. 2022. Decarbonizing transport sector in Thailand towards 2050. In Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference and Utililty Exhibition on Energy, Environment and Climate Change (ICUE) 2022. Pattaya City, Thailand: 26-28 October.

Chaichaloempreecha A. and Limmeechokchai B. 2022. Transition of Thailand’s power sector toward carbon neutrality 2050. In Proceedings of the 2022 International Conference and Utililty Exhibition on Energy, Environment and Climate Change (ICUE) 2022. Pattaya City, Thailand: 26-28 October.

Pradhan B.B., Chaichaloempreecha A., Chunark P., Rajbhandari S., Pita P., and Limmeechokchai B., 2022. Energy system transformation for attainability of net zero emissions in Thailand. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management 35: 27–44.

IRENA & ACE., 2022. Renewable energy outlook for ASEAN towards a regional energy transition. International Renewable Energy Agency. Available: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2022/Sep/Renewable-Energy-Outlook-for-ASEAN-2nd-edition

DEDE., 2020. Alternative energy development plan 2018-2037 (AEDP2018). Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy. Available: http://www.eppo.go.th/index.php/th/conservation/aedp

DEDE., 2020. Energy Efficiency Plan 2018-2037 (EEP2018). Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency, Ministry of Energy. Available: https://oldwww.dede.go.th/ewt_dl_link.php?nid=54495

EPPO., 2020. Power Development Plan 2018 (PDP2018). Energy Policy and Planning Office, Ministry of Energy. Available: https://www.eppo.go.th/images/POLICY/PDF/PDP2018.pdf

Heaps C.G. 2023. LEAP: The Low Emissions Analysis Platform. Stockholm Environment Institute. Somerville, MA, USA. Available: https://leap.sei.org

SEI. 2023. NEMO: Next Energy Modeling system for Optimization. Stockholm Environment Institute. Somerville, MA, USA. Available: https://www.sei.org/tools/nemo-the-next-energy-modeling-system-for-optimization/

Emodi N. V., Emodi C. C., Murthy G. P., and Emodi A. S. A., 2017. Energy policy for low carbon development in Nigeria: A LEAP model application. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 68: 247–261.

Lorm R. and Limmeechokchai B., 2024. Thailand net zero emissions 2050 : Analyses of decarbonized energy system beyond the NDC. International Energy Journal 24(2): 95–108.

World Bank. 2024. WDI: World Development Indicators. World Bank [Online serial] Retrieved June 15, 2024 from the World Wide Web: https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators

United Nations. 2024. World Population Prospects 2022. Department of Eeconomic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations [Online serial] Retrieved January 01, 2024, from the World Wide Web: https://population.un.org/wpp/

NSO. 2024. Thailand Statistical Yearbook 2003-2019. National Statistical Office of Thailand [Online serial] Retrieved December 20, 2023 from the World Wide Web: https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/nso/ebook?set_lang=en

IIASA. 2024. Share Socioeconomic Pathways Database-Version 2.0. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Online serial] Retrieved December 20, 2024, from the World Wide Web: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=10%0A

MoT., 2020. Transport Statistics 2018. Available: https://datagov.mot.go.th/dataset/7c3d8945-fcb5-4f74-a69f-e757dd981bc1/resource/01dd8c9c-ae61-403e-bab8-74c220212003/download/transport-statistics-2018-complete.pdf

[34] ACE., 2022. The 7th ASEAN energy outlook 2020-2050. Jakarta, Indonesia. Available: https://asean.org/book/the-7th-asean-energy-outlook-2020-2050/

Handayani K., Anugrah P., Goembira F., Overland I., Suryadi B., and Swandaru A., 2022. Moving beyond the NDCs: ASEAN pathways to a net-zero emissions power sector in 2050. Applied Energy 311: 118580.

NREL. 2024. Annual Technology Baseline 2023. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy [Online serial] Retrieved January 01, 2024, from the World Wide Web: https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2023/technologies

IEA., 2024. World energy outlook 2024. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/world-energy-outlook-2024

EGAT., 2013. Power Purchase Agreement of Nam Ngiep 1 Project between EGAT and Laos. Available: https://policy.asiapacificenergy.org/sites/default/files/Power Purchase Agreement of Nam Ngiep 1 Project between EGAT and Laos.pdf

Kim B. J., Hyun M. K., and Yoo S. H., 2024. Economic effects of the hydrogen fuel cell sector in South Korea: An input-output analysis. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 68(May): 955–969.

Ananwattanaporn S., Patcharoen T., Bunjongjit S., and Ngaopitakkul A., 2021. Retrofitted existing residential building design in energy and economic aspect according to Thailand building energy code. Applied Sciences 11(4): 1–19.

GIZ., 2019. ASEAN Fuel Economy Roadmap for the Transport Sector 2018-2025: with Focus on Light-Duty Vehicles. Available: https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/ASEAN-Fuel-Economy-Roadmap-FINAL.pdf

IRS. 2025. Yearly average exchange rates for converting foreign currencies into U.S. dollars. IRS [Online serial] Retrieved February -05, 2025, from the World Wide Web: https://www.irs.gov/individuals/international-taxpayers/yearly-average-currency-exchange-rates

Apergis N., Payne J.E., and Rayos-Velazquez M., 2020. Carbon dioxide emissions intensity convergence: Evidence from central American countries. Frontier in Energy Research 7: 1–7.