Evaluating Policy Options for Transition to Decarbonized Society in Africa

Abstract

To identify whether African countries can succeed in the transition to a decarbonized society by 2050, this study developed a simulation model creating scenarios with limited data and analyzed the decarbonization potential in Africa. Impact analyses were also conducted to assess effective policy options in industrial, residential, commercial, and transportation sectors for each of the African regions. The types of decarbonization policies that would be effective were also quantitatively evaluated according to each country’s degree of economic development. The results showed that under a realistic future assumption, building a decarbonized society by 2050 would be difficult. The results also indicated that the introduction of electric and fuel-cell vehicles and the improvement of cooking stoves in African countries where gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is low would be effective in reducing carbon dioxide emissions relative to the reference scenarios.